Alarming growth: The numbers confirm what Nagelsmann has been complaining about for weeks

Mun – That’s the just about absurd state of affairs Julian Nagelsmann finds himself in in the beginning of his second season as Bayern Munich coach. After three matchdays within the Bundesliga, the membership had the very best begin to a season in its historical past – after seven it was the worst in twelve years. A dramatic fall.

FC Bayern 4 video games and not using a win: Nagelsmann appears more and more defeated

The query arises: How can issues go downhill so shortly? In the search for a solution, gamers, coaches and officers at all times got here to the identical conclusion: the exploitation of alternatives is just inadequate. AZ had an in depth evaluation performed by statistical service supplier Opta. The numbers not solely confirm Nagelsmann, additionally they present a dramatic slowdown.

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FC Bayern Coach: Julian Nagelsmann.

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FC Bayern: An enormous lapse in taking possibilities

Theoretically, Bayern’s Bundesliga season to date might be clearly divided into two phases. Match days one to a few, when Bayern labored coolly in entrance of objective and the opposition fired brief and slender pictures. And match days 4 to seven, when the objective was most carelessly overgrown. If you evaluate the 2 phases, a transparent discontinuity is obvious by way of exploitation of alternatives.

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To put it in numbers: The conversion of possibilities dropped from 29 % within the first leg to a depressing six % (the worst worth with VfL Bochum under) within the second leg (the second greatest worth within the Bundesliga).

FC Bayern created eleven huge possibilities and could not convert a single one!

Even extra worrying is the looks of exploitation of key alternatives: Over the primary three matchdays, the Munich crew developed 17 of those and transformed eight of them – a greater than first rate 47 per cent. In the earlier 4 match days, there have been at the least eleven huge possibilities – however not a single one was taken!

In truth, Bayern clearly overperformed in entrance of the field within the first section of the season, as a take a look at the so-called “anticipated targets” worth makes clear. This supplies info on what number of targets are statistically more likely to consequence from the sum of the relative possibilities. In the primary three match days at Bayern this was 9.3 – however a complete of 15 targets have been scored. So you scored about six extra targets than you probably did.

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Bayern goalkeeper Christian Fruchtl before the start of the game.

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Here too, a large hunch is obvious in view of the second section of the season. In the final 4 video games, the “anticipated targets” worth was 8.2. The backside line, nonetheless, was solely 4 targets – lower than half.

Nagelsmann: Win video games? “It’s actually fairly easy”

Those are numbers which can be actually unfair to high quality gamers. Nagelsmann additionally criticized the extraordinarily poor possibilities after the sport in Augsburg. “To win the sport we now have to make use of 4 one-on-one conditions in opposition to the goalkeeper. If we do not try this, we can’t win. It’s really fairly easy,” the 35-year-old mentioned.

You cannot oppose it there. Numbers do not lie…

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