Those are the stats! – Imirante.com


“I do not consider in statistics!”

“But do you consider you are going to die?”

A really clever good friend informed me about this dialog he had with a skeptical interlocutor. In truth, there’s a lot confusion about statistics, together with a quote attributed to Benjamin Disraeli: “There are three sorts of lies: lies, outright lies, and statistics.”

Disraeli was a British politician in the first half of the nineteenth century and when he was alive, the world was experiencing a most fascinating time by way of altering paradigms of thought and philosophy. Just to remind you, Karl Marx, Charles Darwin and Sigmund Freud lived on this century. Alan Kardek, additionally the father of Spiritism – as a result of I’ve to place some fireplace in my sardines.

During this time additionally lived the proficient and versatile Lord Calvin. He is credited with an announcement that there would solely be “two clouds” which obscured the discovery of physics. In different phrases, the science may have reached its limits – there will likely be nothing extra to find – and it’ll solely be a matter of time and a few changes for the clouds to vanish.

I don’t intend to enter particulars, however these “two clouds” will likely be precisely the idea of relativity and quantum mechanics – the greatest revolution of the final century. Relativity explains that in a world of very excessive speeds, near gentle, matter slows down and time dilates. It was additionally this idea that demonstrated the actuality of the well-known black holes, from which nothing can escape, not even gentle!

Quantum mechanics (QM, for nerds) is much more superior! It research the small world at the degree of atoms, electrons and even tiny objects. Albert Einstein gained the Nobel Prize for predicting the photoelectric impact, which happens in photo voltaic panels that generate vitality based mostly on mq. Bohr, Heisenberg, Feynman and different large names additionally contributed. But what’s shocking is the reliance on statistics! Quantum can’t exist with out statistics – simply as you are not studying this text in your laptop or cellular phone, as a result of the manufacturing of your chips just isn’t potential with out MQ.

Let’s set up what I imply slightly extra. Deep down, the nineteenth century crowd was deeply influenced by Isaac Newton’s phenomenal idea. This genius impressed a collection of scientific thinkers and philosophers that flowed into the mechanical world! Let me use a picture: the world, based on this view, can be a set of gears – the future can be simply predictable with unbelievable precision!

This concept was very effectively illustrated in “Modern Times” by the incomparable Charles Chaplin, whose iconic picture may be seen above – with the gears of that world! In one other movie, the artist rebels towards this view in “The Great Dictator”. At one level, he says “You are not machines! You are males!”, which turned recognized worldwide as “The Last Speech”.

Statistics places science on one other degree, as that Flamengo participant would say. That is, in some instances, we are able to even understand some issues taking place like gears. But what was imposed have been collective behaviors – and the future was now not as predictable as thought utilizing Newtonian pondering. You can’t predict what’s going to occur to a molecule that enters your nostril: whether or not you’ll scent the fragrance or the odor it emits. Or what occurs to the sensitivity of our eye cells that solely react to gentle rays.

Medicines can’t be made with out statistical assessments. This is for the examine of virus propagation. At the time of the outbreak of COVID, we performed a number of research at the request of then Governor Flavio Dino, engaged on forecasting the variety of instances or deaths. Also, while you use your cellular phone, so that you pay much less for voice messages despatched, human speech processing algorithms mannequin your vocal tract – mouth, tongue, tooth, and many others. – and numerically course of your message in order that as little knowledge as potential is shipped.

Since the 40s of the final century, that’s, for 80 years, the habits of neurons has been studied. Today it’s potential to measure the exercise of a single neuron, however it’s often related to tons of or hundreds of others. The mind learns exactly by repetition, and neurons adapt, connections consolidate. Like driving a motorcycle or driving a automobile, for instance: you fully repeat and ultimately have these “automated” behaviors.

Again, it’s collective exercise that produces studying – a undeniable fact that makes us predictable, after all, since the purpose is to have the ability to repeat “with out pondering”. Well, that is precisely what neuroscientists found and what synthetic intelligence aces use on social media, reminiscent of Facebook or Instagram: what you see, your “preferences”, in brief, your habits is analyzed by algorithms they usually counsel merchandise. Starts, reminiscent of footwear, baggage, garments and naturally political choices! Last elections and will certainly be influenced by these machines.

Artificial intelligence algorithms are very elaborate types of knowledge. The extra knowledge, the higher they are. Our brains, after all, are extra environment friendly, so we be taught extraordinary issues that they can’t. Neuroscientists present that what we do day-after-day is simply statistics. Why can we get misplaced in the forest? Because we acknowledge crops with a single sample, we lose context and may’t discover the method… Of course, there are hundreds of different examples of the human mind utilizing statistics.

mr. Jura, a taxi driver, protested to me that he didn’t consider in the analysis as a result of he was not consulted. I believe it was as a result of they didn’t please him as a lot as my good friend’s interlocutor, who providentially requested if he believed he would die. In truth, “You’re going to die!” There isn’t any regulation to dictate, solely an enormous collective perception that, since everybody, with out exception, has died, I too will incarnate. Probability utilized utilizing numerous cube!

Experts advise us towards extreme use of digital communication. We are pushed by algorithms – and so are those that created them. It is critical to resume human coexistence, to speak to the neighbor, to speak with the subsequent. They say the finest present is your presence. Perhaps that’s the reason I dare to finish this column with the iconic Chaplin in “The Last Speech”:

Soldiers! Don’t put your self in the fingers of brutes… who hate you… who enslave you… who regiment your life… who dictate your actions, your ideas and your emotions! Who paces you, who topics you to a regimented food regimen, who treats you want human cattle and who makes use of you want cannon fodder! You are not machines! Men are you! And with the love of humanity in your soul! Don’t hate! They solely hate those that don’t love themselves… those that don’t love themselves and are not inhuman!

*Alan Kardec Duelibe Barros Filho, PhD from Nagoya University, Japan, Professor at UFMA, former Director of ANP, Member of AMC, President of Gasmar.

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